There’s a lot to worry about going into 2023 according to Dodge Data & Analytics in its 2023 Construction Industry Outlook:

• Inflation
• More oil production cuts from OPEC
• Relations between China and Taiwan
• Further escalation of the war in Ukraine

While the immediate forecast is choppy, if things stabilize in the back half of 2023, according to Dodge Data & Analytics, total construction starts in the U.S. should remain flat in 2023. While “flat” may not sound particularly optimistic, it is, when you consider that total construction starts in 2022 were up 17%.

“We’re sitting at 14- to 15-year highs in the Dodge Momentum Index,” stated Richard Branch, Chief Economist at Dodge Data, “so it should provide some semblance of confidence and reassurance that developers and owners are continuing to put projects into the queue despite the fact that we’re concerned about what might happen when interest rates keep rising and the economy slows down in 2023.” Labor shortages will continue to be a big hurdle for the construction industry, according to Branch, but a bright spot is in material prices that peaked in 2021 but generally fell throughout 2022.