One big reason to continue to believe this is no 2008-style financial crisis in the making is the housing market, which has held up well. That means, we’re more likely to experience a garden-variety recession, and I think it will happen sometime later this year.

Why this isn’t another 2008-style crisis
Residential property was famously the trigger for a cataclysmic global financial crisis a decade and a half ago. That’s because residential property is one of the principal assets of the middle classes across the globe. And it’s a leveraged investment to boot because of the money borrowed through mortgages. That makes large and pervasive house-price declines toxic for the economy.

But not that many people are worrying about house prices today. So I thought I’d take a breather from the doom and gloom surrounding commercial real estate, banks and the debt ceiling to focus on house prices and why they aren’t worrying us this go round. And I’ll use one of the pricier markets, the UK, as a first example.