As we look to 2026, the Hartford’s Global Insights Center is of the view that the U.S. economic outlook will likely be driven by the direction of consumption, artificial intelligence (AI), and healthcare. These may emerge as the three main themes and macro factors shaping the U.S. economy in the year ahead. AI, however, could also present some headwinds, which we will discuss throughout this report. Other areas matter as well, such as housing, which we will also address.

Watch the Consumer, AI, and Healthcare
To start, we anticipate labor conditions to remain soft, a continuation of a theme we highlighted in 2025. This implies slower than trend job creation, a slight increase in the unemployment rate, and wage inflation may decelerate but remain elevated relative to prior years. We believe wage pressures may be driven by labor availability, based on our analysis of demographic trends.